CFR   RATES REGIME v2.0
RATES REGIME
Loading... NOW
—
NEXT CUT PROBABILITY
Jun 47% → Sep 50% → Jan'27 94%
OIS-implied · strip prices ~23bp easing by Dec'26
TRIGGER CONDITION
Core CPI < 2.8% for 2 consecutive months
Current: 3.1% — gap of ~30bp to trigger
KEY CHANGE TODAY
No change
12 days since last FOMC · next data: PCE Apr 11
KEY RISK
Tariff pass-through +0.4–0.8% core CPI
Could push first cut past Jan'27
COHERENCE ρ̄₂₀
—
20d rolling mean |pairwise corr|
SPX / 10Y SIGNAL
— / —
vs prior day
POSITIONING
Loading positioning...
Updated: — · Auto-refresh every 24h
Macro Regime Timeline SPY · 10Y · UUP · Base 100 · Live
Alva
Regime Statistics n=320d · highlighted = today
Regime
Freq
Avg Dur
SPX Med
10Y Avg
DXY Med
Regime Transition Probability from current regime · next day
Next Regime
Prob
Hist. Count
Forward Returns by Regime avg annualized · from entry
Regime
5d SPX
10d SPX
5d 10Y
Macro Coherence ρ̄₂₀ 20d rolling · SPX×10Y×DXY
Alva
US STIR FFR —
FAIR VALUE MODEL Inflation Regime
US Treasury Yield Curve Loading...
Tenor
Yield
1D Δ
1W Δ
1M Δ
YoY Inflation
YoY
1M
3M
6M
2%
Alva
2s10s Treasury Spread bp · loading...
Alva
MoM %
Alva
Inflation Regime Assessment

Loading inflation data...

Real Yields & Breakevens
5Y TIPS
—
Real yield
10Y TIPS
—
Real yield
5Y BEI
—
10Y BEI
—